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Fortune Magazine Says DVD and Blu-ray Days Are Numbered
Saturday, 3rd May 2008, 01:02

ChangesPosted by Mark Oates on 3-5-2008 01:02

According to Bill Hunt over at the Digital Bits, Fortune Magazine is sounding the death knell of physical media in an article that claims:

Quote:
Time Warner, Fox, Disney, Paramount, Universal, Lionsgate, Image and First Look are all soon going to begin releasing their movies on Apple's iTunes download service day and date with the DVD release. The piece then goes on to conclude that this means "Time Warner is finally ready to start weaning itself from DVD sales, which have been Hollywood’s biggest revenue source for years." and also that "Sony and Toshiba just incinerated a pile of money in a useless DVD format war."

Bill argues this is nuts. DVD sales have never been affected by VOD in past experiments carried out by Warner Bros. DVD rentals have maybe fallen by 3% in markets affected but usually sales have increased. Also in the argument he points out that most movie consumers don't download anyway, that downloading is still a pretty specialised game to be playing for the average consumer. It isn't consumer-friendly (especially not for old crocks like us), and unless you're paying a fortune for your broadband link, many ISPs are bandwidth limiting because networks just aren't up to snuff for delivering high bandwidth content such as HD movies.

I think this shows up just how ignorant of high-tech issues both Hollywood brass and respected magazine journalists are. I get the feeling the view Hollywood brass has of computers is pretty much based on repeated viewings of Weird Science and War Games.

If we do get to see proper VOD provision in the future, a lot of money is going to need to be spent on dragging antiquated telecoms networks kicking and screaming into the 21st Century. Personally I have nothing against the idea of VOD, providing there is some method of being able to keep and backup your valuable bought-and-paid-for data locally. I balk at the idea of PPV/PPP, and I really hate the idea of PCs turning into almost dumb terminals with all your storage being looked after by that nice Mr Gates chap.

Comments on this Item

ChangesPosted by Si Wooldridge on 3-5-2008 12:01

The format war was pointless ultimately for the consumer but clearly worth a lot of money for the developer of the winning format. Even an idiot can understand why there were entrenched positions on this.

As to the death of DVD, I really can't see that the physical format will die. Thing is, most people prefer the home theatre experience and generally will watch in comfort with family and/or friends (except me, but I'm just a sad case and no one likes what I watch aside from my son who thinks just about everything I watch is 'cool'). Sales of new format players are on the up, to say nothing of high spec big screen TV's - I even got myself a 40" LCD myself that is HD ready after my old TV blew up.

I struggle to believe that most people prefer watching films/TV on their PC. I use the iPlayer when I miss something but I would much prefer to be sat comfortably rather than at my desk and on a screen bigger than 19". Yes I have surround sound on it, but it's nowhere as good as my Sony DVD player. And yes, I could connect my PC to the TV, but would should I? For me, even if I wanted to, it's not practical within my current living arrangements.

Speaking of iPlayer, clearly someone needs to show these companies the arguements currently going on between the BBC and ISP's who are balking at the amount of bandwidth being used.

I can tell you exactly what it is, it's the trendy crowd who are happy to trend set by watching the latest blockbuster on a 2" screen iPod whilst commuting. DVD will be withdrawn at the Studio's peril.

ChangesPosted by David Beckett on 3-5-2008 17:09

I'd always rather have the DVD/BD than some downloaded format, just as I'd rather have a CD than an MP3 file. With the physical item you can play it where you want, lend it to friends and actually see/feel/touch it - it's something tangible not a digital file somewhere in the ether. What if your computer crashes and you lose it?

I have a V+ box but I don't keep things after I've watched them. I only record something that I'm interested in seeing - if I like it, then I'll buy it.

I guess that most people think the same and, even if they don't buy, would rather rent a disc than download it on a PPV basis.

ChangesPosted by Mark Oates on 3-5-2008 20:31

Quote:
it's the trendy crowd who are happy to trend set by watching the latest blockbuster on a 2" screen iPod whilst commuting

Nail/head interface there, Si. The biggest danger to technology are those silly bastards who can afford bleeding-edge technology and will embrace a new trick just because they can boast to their mates they can do it. Watch a movie at the bottom of a swimming pool? Gimme!! Sadly the sorts of people who dream up these gadgets are the same sort and there's nobody to tell them to stop - that's a silly idea. They rush off to Hollywood brass with these concepts and because they're nerds and full of excitement Hollywood reckons it's on to a winner. You'd think the poor takeup of the UMD movie disc might have tipped them off that handheld movie viewing is a no-no.

I think everybody is overexcited by these iphone type devices and they're throwing everything including the kitchen sink at them. Even the government's communications watchdog is getting overexcited, hoping to make a fortune for the Treasury with next-gen phone frequencies. Really there are a limited number of things you can do with a multipurpose pocket device like an iphone, and I think the market is moving too fast and needs an opportunity to mature. The flashy silly applications need to be weeded out and what people actually use the damn things for figured out.

ChangesPosted by Jitendar Canth on 4-5-2008 12:53

Speaking of silly bar stewards, Dolphin now install a free waterproof TV with every bathroom they sell. It's in their latest ads. I thought the drop down TVs in the kitchen were bad enough, but now no room is free of the gogglebox.

ChangesPosted by Robert John Shepherd on 5-5-2008 11:19

TV in the bathroom? I wouldn't say no! But I guess it depends how long your bath is...

ChangesPosted by Stuart McLean on 5-5-2008 15:53

I think the fight for physical media will eventually be a lost battle. It's inevitable that disc formats will eventually disppear, but probably not all that quickly. The market doesn't actually move anywhere near as fast as the gadget-meisters would have you believe. The CD is a prime example. Now 25 years on, it could easily have been put to bed ten years ago. We're only just seeing the last of our VHS tapes on the shelves of charity shops awaiting their final spin before they're laid to rest.

Like Mark and Si, I like to have my own library of materials squirrelled away for easy access. The idea of running a pipe to Mr. Gates data repository is a not a dream I share with him, though it's certainly a dream he indulges in himself. I remember some 15 years ago hearing Gates talk of a world where all software could be accessed by all (via dumb terminals) and some miniscule charge would be made to each and everyone of us per usage (like any other utility). This may happen, but fortunately there are some sane folk left in the world who wouldn't want Bill to be the only Gate(s)keeper. Information is power!

ChangesPosted by Mark Oates on 5-5-2008 20:41

I agree that physical media's days are numbered in the long run. I'd actually be very happy to keep my entire collection on a hefty RAID array running quietly in a corner and piping video all over the house. I have the beginnings of such a home network set up. I wouldn't have any problem with replacing my shelves of DVDs with a catalogue of box art. My personal worry is all this talk of PPP content, encrypted up to the eyeballs to satisfy Hollywood paranoia and only accessible at the whim of a distant network admin who suddenly realises that he can wipe all of those 1940s film noirs which only get accessed once in a blue moon in favour of a dozen feeds for the new Adam Sandler torrent.

You always get the technofiles blowing a raspberry and saying that storage will be so cheap in the future that there will be room for everything to be available - bull****! Data real estate always costs something, and there's always some cheese-paring individual who will want that single Gb to pay its way. They go on about the choice of music available through iTunes, et al., but I can guarantee that if I want a tune, it ain't out there, and my choices are only slightly weird.

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Fortune Magazine Says DVD and Blu-ray Days Are NumberedSaturday, 3rd May 2008, 01:02